Predicting the SEC: Let's Do This
Ah, yes, another SEC prediction that nobody asked for. No disrespect and don't come for me please.
Okay folks. Time for SEC predictions. I reserve the right to change this whenever I want and will not be responsible for any consequences. We’ll go in reverse order to save the best for last. No questions? Great. Let’s get right to it.
Auburn RB Damari Alston hurdles a Kentucky defender (Jordan Prather/Imagn Images)
16. Kentucky Wildcats
Look, someone had to be last. Kentucky is in for a rough year in my eyes and this is the season head coach Mark Stoops is finally let go.
Zach Calzada (sound familiar, Auburn fans?) transferred in from Incarnate Word to be the Cats starting QB this year and he’s going to try to turn it around. I just don’t see enough talent on this team to compete with the rest of the SEC. 3-9 may be generous too, they have a Toledo team coming to Lexington week 1 that took Mississippi State behind the woodshed last year.
Speaking of Mississippi State…
15. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State is a completely new team this year. They brought in over 30 transfers and do have some talent on this roster.
I’m a big fan on South Alabama transfer RB Fluff Bothwell. He had over 800 yards and 13 touchdowns last season and is probably the most talented transfer player they brought in.
I like head coach Jeff Lebby and think its possible they trip one or two teams up (looking at you, Arkansas) but they’re probably a year or two away from competing with the rest of the league.
14. Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas surprised some people last season early on, but faltered down the stretch. They started 4-2 with a big win over Tennessee and two close loses away from home against Oklahoma State (39-31 2OT) and Texas A&M (21-17).
The schedule got tougher as the season went on (4 losses to 4 ranked teams) and the Hogs finished 6-6 once again. Taylen Green is back at QB but they lost a ton on both offense and defense.
The only SEC game I truly see them winning is at home late in the season against Mississippi State. Add in two tough out of conference games in Notre Dame and at Memphis and this might be all she wrote for head coach Sam Pittman.
13. Vanderbilt Commodores
This one may get me in trouble. Listen, I love head coach Clark Lea. He is the perfect man for the Vandy job and I truly think he’ll do a fine job as his career progresses. Diego Pavia is dynamic and Eli Stowers is a really good athletic tight end.
I’m not buying it this year. Nobody is going to be overlooking Vandy and they will be at a talent disadvantage at almost every position. Their schedule is tough to say the least, having to make trips to Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, and Virginia Tech. They will be on everyone’s radar and no matter how many rabbits Pavia pulls out of his hat, it’s not happening this year.
(Dan Harralson/Vols Wire)
12. Tennessee Volunteers
If Nico Iamaleava was still on the team, I’d definitely have the Vols higher on my list. Instead, Nico is suiting up for the UCLA Bruins this fall and Joey Aguilar (UCLA/App State transfer) is most likely QB1 for Tennessee.
Tennessee was really good on defense last season and more up and down offensively. They lost a ton of talent in the offseason and without an elite QB, I don’t think they have the horses to return to the playoff this season.
The schedule lines up for them to have the potential to knock someone off, including a rare early season matchup with Georgia. They open with a decent Syracuse team in Atlanta too which will definitely tell us a lot about this young team. In my opinion, this is more of a reset year for the Vols
11. Missouri Tigers
I won’t lie, I’m having a hard time with Missouri. There are a lot of newcomers on this team, including new QB Beau Pribula. The Penn State transfer is a true dual threat and actually played a lot last season for the Nittany Lions and if he catches on, the offense could be dangerous.
Mizzou also picked up the best running back in the portal in Louisiana Monroe’s Ahmad Hardy. He was a stud last season rushing for over 1300 yards and 13 touchdowns and picked Mizzou over several power conference teams.
The Tigers lost their best offensive weapon in Luther Burden III but they do have a very favorable schedule, including opening with 6 consecutive home games. I’ll be curious to see what Eli Drinkwitz comes up with this season, I just don’t think they have the horses to match up with some of the top teams in the conference.
10. South Carolina Gamecocks
Another one that may come back to bite me. South Carolina exploded through the last half of the season last year. They won 6 straight to end the regular season including two huge wins over #10 Texas A&M and on the road at #12 Clemson.
LaNorris Sellers is back at QB for the Gamecocks and surprisingly was named preseason 1st team All-SEC QB after media days. Freshman phenom Dylan Stewart returns for his sophomore season and is looking to be the anchor of a stingy South Carolina defense.
SC is getting a ton of hype before the season starts, but I’m actually leaning the other way on them. Don’t get me wrong, Sellers is enough to win a few games all by himself. But their schedule is just brutal, especially to end the season. Listen to this stretch to end the year: at #9 LSU, #18 Oklahoma, #8 Alabama, at #21 Ole Miss, bye, at #19 Texas A&M, Coastal Carolina, #4 Clemson.
If they go 3-4 in that stretch, that’s absolutely a win in my book. They certainly have some talent, but ultimately I think the schedule is the reason they fall below their lofty expectations this year.
9. Florida Gators
Now we’re getting to what I think is the strength of the conference. Teams 5-11 really could be in any order and most wouldn’t bat an eye at it.
Florida is probably the most talented of this middle group of teams. DJ Lagway is back to captain the ship and could be the most talented QB in the conference. He has a bazooka for an arm and is physically imposing at 6’3, 247 lbs. There’s some really good receiver talent around him and a defense that got better and better as the season progressed last year.
But for the second year in a row, the scheduling gods decided to throw everything they have at the Gators. I’m particularly looking at the section of their schedule that goes at LSU, at Miami, bye, then hosting Texas. If you want to compete with the rest of the SEC, you have to go 1-2 at a minimum in that 4 week stretch.
Don’t forget they have to play at Ole Miss (we know Lane Kiffin has that one circled), at Texas A&M, and they have the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party down in Jacksonville against Georgia. Can Billy Napier lead the Gators through that schedule? Only time will tell. If Florida ends up at 9-3, they may just be the best team in the country. That’s how tough this schedule is.
WR Cam Coleman (Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)
8. Auburn Tigers
Okay Auburn fans, don’t come for me. If the pieces come together, Auburn can absolutely finish higher than this. If the coaching doesn’t improve, the turnovers continue, and the defense falls apart, they could absolutely be lower than this. Finishing right in the middle of the league just makes sense this season.
Jackson Arnold is going to have to distribute the ball to his playmakers while making minimal mistakes. As I wrote earlier this week, I actually think the defense ends up being the strength of this team and will keep the Tigers in every game. You just need Hugh Freeze and Arnold to be on the same page and keep using the plethora of offensive weapons they have at their disposal.
7. Ole Miss Rebels
Another team that could truly fall anywhere from 5-11. Lane Kiffin had his best team last season and still managed to mess it up. I’m a big fan of new quarterback Austin Simmons. I think the lanky lefty is about to break out big time and stamp his name on the college football landscape.
The problem is the defense. The Rebels had an elite defensive front last year and lost just about everybody. They brought in a ton of portal players like Kiffin normally does and they’ll be relied upon to make a big impact.
We know Kiffin will have the Rebels offense humming right along, even after losing Jaxson Dart to the first round of the NFL draft. But I just don’t see Ole Miss reloading on defense enough to put them back into the upper echelon of the SEC.
6. Texas A&M Aggies
Head coach Mike Elko is back for his second year in College Station and is looking to improve on their 8-5 record from last season. They were in the drivers seat for a spot in the SEC championship game all the way until the end of the season. They were a 4th overtime dropped pass away from being 9-3 at the end of the season with a chance at sneaking into the playoff.
They bring back a ton of talent from last year, including QB Marcel Reed. Reed is an unbelievable athlete and after one year in offensive coordinator Collin Klein’s system, he’s looking to take a big step forward. The Aggies landed one of the best WR transfers in NC State transfer KC Concepcion and they were able to bring back running back Le’Veon Moss.
Elko isn’t going to let Texas A&M’s defense be as shaky as it was the last half of 2024. Year after year, A&M has enormous potential to make a run in the SEC and year after year, they finish below expectations. Is this the year they finally break through?
5. Oklahoma Sooners
For better or for worse, I’m all aboard the Sooners hype train. This is largely due to new transfer QB John Mateer (Washington State). Mateer followed his offensive coordinator from WSU to Oklahoma and he is one of the most dynamic QBs in the country. Josh Pate is one of my favorite CFB media members and he’s gone as far to place real American dollars on Mateer to win the Heisman. Talk about pressure!
Head coach Brent Venables is a defensive savant, and while I don’t think he’s the long term answer at Oklahoma, I think he can piece together a pretty good defense to compliment the hyped up offense. They get a big test early with Michigan coming to Norman week two and hosting Auburn week five. We’ll find out quickly what this team is made of.
(Crimson Tide Photos/UA Athletics)
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
Kalen DeBoer’s team fell below the standard last fall. They finished 9-4 with three of their losses coming to 6-6 Vanderbilt, 6-6 Oklahoma, and an abysmal bowl loss to a Michigan team that had most of their best players sitting out. It was a shock to most of the college football world that had people questioning if DeBoer is the man for the job.
I don’t think this becomes a trend for the Tide. They’re extremely talented per usual and brought in another great recruiting class. The biggest question comes at quarterback. Ty Simpson waited his turn and is finally getting a chance to prove himself.
On paper, Simpson is a much better fit in DeBoer’s offense than Jalen Milroe. He’s much more comfortable in the pocket and is actually a better athlete than people think. If he works out, I see no other option other than Alabama making the playoff. But what if he doesn’t? What if he is as inconsistent as Milroe and the offense struggles against top defenses? Things could get dicey really quick for Kalen DeBoer. He’s one 8-4 season away from fans screaming for his head. I don’t think that will be the case and we really won’t know until we see Simpson play, but its certainly a storyline to watch this fall.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
The Dawgs had an interesting season last year. They almost pull off the most improbable comeback against Alabama only to lose to Ryan Williams magic. They win at #1 Texas in convincing fashion and then three weeks later lose at #16 Ole Miss. Georgia Tech then takes them to 8 (!!) overtimes before UGA finally pulls through. All of this happens and they still manage to win the SEC, once again. Go figure.
QB Carson Beck is at Miami now so the Dawgs will be turning to Gunner Stockton to run the show. We got to see Stockton in the playoff game against Notre Dame and he looked fine, but not elite. UGA definitely upgraded their weapons around him with USC transfer Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M transfer Noah Thomas, so if he’s just a game manager the offense should be totally fine. They’ll have to replace almost every starter along the offensive line but with how they’ve recruited the last few season, this shouldn’t be too much of an issue.
I’m not going to touch on the defense too much. It’s a Kirby Smart defense with multiple top recruits. They’re going to be just fine. Their three biggest games are at home in Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas, and their toughest road test is probably at Auburn in week 7. I think their run of SEC title game appearances finally ends, but they’re almost a lock for the playoff this season.
2. LSU Tigers
I really wanted to put LSU at #1. They’re so talented, they upgraded extremely well through the portal, and they brought in another top 10 recruiting class.
QB Garrett Nussmeier is back in the Bayou for one last season and has NFL scouts drooling all over him. He could be the #1 pick in next year’s draft and has elite receiving talent all around him. Watch out for Aaron Anderson to have a really big year for the Tigers as he takes that next step in becoming the top receiver on the team.
I have some questions with the running game, but Caden Durham was one of the top freshman backs last year and should take a step forward. They landed the best TE transfer in my opinion in Oklahoma transfer Bauer Sharp and they get all-world linebacker Harold Perkins back after tearing his ACL last season. If they have all this talent, why am I not putting them at #1?
For starters, Brian Kelly. I think he’s a very good coach, maybe even a top 3 coach in college football. But time after time, he loses a game he shouldn’t each season. Most notably, he loses season opening games. LSU hasn’t won an opening game since 2019 and what do they get this season to try to break that streak? A trip to the other Death Valley to take on the #4 ranked Clemson Tigers.
Another reason I don’t have LSU #1 is their schedule is just brutal. Trips to Clemson, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma are daunting on their own. Throw in home games with Texas A&M, Florida, and South Carolina and you’ve got one of the toughest schedules in the country. If the Bayou Bengals make it through all that, I’ll be extremely comfortable calling them the best team in college football. But odds are, they’re going to drop at least one of those games.
1. Texas Longhorns
Texas is back, folks. They lost to eventual national champion Ohio State last year in the semifinals and they don’t have to wait long to get their revenge. They’ll make a trip to the Shoe week 1 to take on a revamped Buckeyes team. Personally, I think they set the tone right away. Don’t get me wrong, Ohio State is great and is going to be a major player in the Big Ten. But Texas is the most talented team in the country and is poised for their best chance at a championship since 2005.
There’s no question about who’s team this is either. Arch Manning has the keys to the Ferrari this season and man oh man, are people putting high expectations on him. I actually don’t think he’s going to be as good as some media (cough cough Paul Finebaum) think he’s going to be this season. He played sparingly over the years and while he did play well, he was pretty inconsistent against top competition. That being said, I still think he’s going to be pretty solid this season. He doesn’t have to be either of his famous uncles. He just needs to be Arch. He’s got a bazooka attached to his right arm and his legs bring an added dynamic that Quinn Ewers couldn’t last season that should help keep defenses off balance.
The Longhorns have the best running back room in the country, a true #1 receiver in sophomore Ryan Wingo and one of the most talented defenses in the country. If Arch can be all he’s cracked up to be, I think this is finally the year that Texas breaks through and all the eyes of the college football world will be upon them.
Texas QB Arch Manning (Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Less than two weeks until Auburn football is back. Can you believe it? We’ll keep the posts rolling over the next two weeks as the season gets closer. Thanks as always for tuning in.